This tool was created to help criminal justice decision makers understand how the incarcerated population is likely to interact with the public health system as the pandemic spreads. The model aims to answer questions like:
The model is updated daily to include new case numbers for each county and state.
In addition, we update assumptions based on new information and add additional features and capabilities that might be helpful. We recommend re-downloading the model every 1-3 days to ensure you’re using up-to-date information.
Recent functionality changes:
Note: The date on the 'Output' tab reflects the release date of that model. Even if the model was released several days ago, if you just downloaded it today the case and fatality numbers will be current within one day.
Complete the gray boxes on the ‘Inputs’ tab; this will tailor the model for your incarcerated population.
View the output on the ‘Output’ tab.
Questions? Feedback? Need help refining this model or fitting it to your system? Join the 'Criminal Justice C19' community on Slack. This is a private community of criminal justice agency leaders and research staff sharing knowledge on how they're approaching the challenges posed by COVID-19.
To join, send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org with the subject line ‘Join the Conversation’
Recidiviz and the Council of State Governments Justice Center are offering assistance to state and county leaders looking to refine and implement the model in their system. Set up a 15 minute initial consultation with the team here and we’ll get you started.
As our understanding of the virus changes, we are upgrading this tool to answer more questions that are top of mind for criminal justice leaders. In the coming days, we’ll:
What makes this model different from the models I see online or in the news?
This model is similar to models being used publicly, but factors in common criminal justice variables (population size, potential population releases, etc).
It also uses an R0 (basic reproductive number, which estimates the rate of an infection's spread) that is specific to prison and jail populations, where airborne illnesses spread at a significantly faster rate than is seen in the general population. See relevant academic work on the spread of similar illnesses in enclosed populations cited in the 'Variables' tab.
How can I model a single facility, instead of my entire incarcerated population?
If you've restricted movement between facilities by staff and the in-facility population, you may get more accurate numbers by modeling COVID-19 by facility instead of as an entire system collectively.
To do so, make copies of this spreadsheet and input the population data for one facility per copy of the model.
Can I get help expanding this model to better fit my jail or prison system?
Yes! You can set up a 15m consultation with the team that produced this model here.
We also suggest joining the 'Criminal Justice C19' community on Slack (see ‘Join the Conversation’ above). This is a community of criminal justice department leads and research staff sharing knowledge on how they're approaching the challenges posed by COVID-19.
Where did all these numbers come from?
You can see a complete list of sources in the ‘Variables’ tab in the model.
Where can I learn more about how others in my field are preparing for COVID-19?
Join the COVID-19 Criminal Justice community on Slack (see ‘Join the Conversation’ above). This is a community of criminal justice department leads and research staff sharing knowledge on how they're approaching the challenges posed by COVID-19.
How can I submit questions, concerns, or suggestions about the model?
First, double-check that you have the most recent version of the model, in case your issue has already been addressed (you can download the latest copy above).
If your issue persists, send your question to email@example.com or set up time with the Recidiviz team here. Recidiviz is a non-profit organization applying technology to issues in criminal justice, and maintains this model to help agencies anticipate and respond to the crisis.
For general questions or suggestions, we'd recommend bringing them up in the 'Criminal Justice C19' community on Slack, where other criminal justice agencies can contribute and build on your ideas (see ‘Join the Conversation’ above).
Can I make changes to this model, or re-share it with others?
You can modify or re-share this model so long as you keep the license notice in the FAQ tab of the model unchanged.
What other guidelines or recommendations are available to prepare our system for COVID-19?
How can I help other criminal justice systems?
The best way to help the rest of the community in real-time is to join the 'Criminal Justice C19' community on Slack (see ‘Join the Conversation’ above). This is a community of criminal justice agency leads and research staff sharing knowledge on how they're approaching the challenges posed by COVID-19.
We’d like to thank the following contributors for helping us build and continuously improve the model.
You can see a full list of model collaborators on recidiviz.org/collaborators.