Policy Impact Modeling

Project the impact of policies on carceral, fiscal, and community outcomes.

Browse analyses below or reach out to work with us on modeling the impact of a bill in your state.

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Example Memos

Restricting Three Strikes to Forcible Felonies in IL

Americans for Prosperity, American Civil Liberties Union

Performance Incentives for Reducing Revocations in TX

Reducing Felony Probation Caps in MI

The Pew Charitable Trusts, REFORM Alliance, Safe & Just Michigan

Eliminating Mandatory Minimums in VA

Over the next five years, policies in 6states could avoid a projected $3.0 billion and give 62,656 life years back to justice-involved individuals.

How the Model Works

Our probabilistic data model simulates people moving through the criminal justice system to forecast impact. We project five-year impacts on cost, population changes, and life years at each step, without double counting as policies are added. Already modeling policies in your state? Let's work together.

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Advocates using our model

Advisors

Celia de Pentheny O'Kelly

Communications Executive and Attorney, Sard Verbinnen & Co

Zoë Towns

Senior Criminal Justice Reform Director, FWD.us

Celia Colón

Founder, Giving Other’s Dreams

Eddie Bocanegra

Director, READI Chicago

Khalil Cumberbatch

Fellow, Council on Criminal Justice

Steve Chanenson

Villanova University Charles Widger School of Law

Ryan King

Director of Research and Policy, Justice Policy Institute

Adam Gelb

President & CEO, Council on Criminal Justice

Get Started

Contact us to understand the impact of policies in your state or discuss the data model.

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