Policy Impact Modeling

Project the impact of policies on carceral, fiscal, and community outcomes.

Browse analyses below or reach out to work with us on modeling the impact of a bill in your state.

Example Memos


September 3, 2020

By reclassifying 4th and 5th degree drug possession charges from felonies to misdemeanors, Ohio could avoid $73M in costs over the next 5 years. This would also help impacted individuals regain 2,697 life years.


September 15, 2020

Reducing the probation cap from 3 years to 1 year for misdemeanors and 5 years to 2 years for felonies could amount to $2.1B in reduced costs over 5 years. At the same time, we could regain over 24,000 life years back for people who would otherwise face reincarceration for technical violations.


August 17, 2020

By expanding the current earned sentence credit system, Virginia is projected to save at least $30 million in marginal costs and incarcerate 2,385 fewer people over 5 years. In doing so, it would join at least 31 states that have a system in place to award earned time incentives to people who complete programs.

Over the next five years, policies in 4 states could avoid a projected $2.9 billion and give 13,402 life years back to justice-involved individuals.

How the Model Works

Our probabilistic data model simulates people moving through the criminal justice system to forecast impact. We project five-year impacts on cost, population changes, and life years at each step, without double counting as policies are added. Already modeling policies in your state? Let's work together.

Advocates using our model


Our People
Zoë Towns
Senior Criminal Justice Reform Director, FWD.us
Celia Colón
Founder, Giving Other’s Dreams
Eddie Bocanegra
Director, READI Chicago
Khalil Cumberbatch
Fellow, Council on Criminal Justice
Steve Chanenson
Villanova University Charles Widger School of Law
Ryan King
Director of Research and Policy, Justice Policy Institute

Get Started

Contact us to understand the impact of policies in your state or discuss the data model.

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